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Wednesday, March 18, 2020

COVID-19 March 18, 2020

CDC just put out their numbers based on reports from yesterday: 7038.

Today's graph hasn't changed much from yesterday. Note that yesterday's numbers have been adjusted slightly (upward) to account for reports that trickled in late. Today's 7038 will likely be adjusted slightly upward tomorrow.

Based on the orange trend line, we will come in just a little bit under 10,000 tomorrow. For reference, we crossed 1000 on the 11th. So, a 10-fold increase in one week. If the trend continues, we'll be at 100,000 at this time next week. The actual number of infections is probably 10 to 100 times larger.

Medical services are really starting to feel the pressure. I get this info directly from personal contacts I have working at the hospitals on the front lines. If that's what happens at 10,000, imagine next week at 100,000. PLEASE BE RESPONSIBLE and KEEP YOUR DISTANCE. Mortality rate from this is anywhere from 1-5% on average, and much higher for older and higher-risk persons. I'll let you do the math. (What is 5% of 10,000? What is 5% of 100,000? What is 5% of 1,000,000?)

All data except for today is coming from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States Today's data is from the CDC: cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

COVID-19 March 17, 2020

Today's numbers are in. I've updated the analysis a bit. I'm now showing all the data (blue) and the data for the last 10 days (orange). The trend line from the orange data will be more responsive to shorter-term changes. The good news is that the orange line is below the blue, although that could be a statistical aberration or the result of systematic issues with testing and reporting (likely). The bad news is that either line is bad news.