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Monday, March 23, 2020

COVID-19 March 23, 2020

Nothing new to add today. Just the stark numbers with continued exponential growth. Still on track for 100,000 sometime on the 26th.


I've been taking the dog for a walk every day, and I make sure to maintain a distance of 50 to 100 feet from anyone that might also be walking around. On each day I've noticed young kids on the playground with their parents socializing at the table. That's not how this works. That's not how any of this works. It's why we are going to be stuck in our houses for a lot longer than we should be, and it's why these half-measures and gubernatorial proclamations are insufficient. The reality is that people are selfish and/or stupid. You shouldn't expect them to behave appropriately. Make them.



2 comments:

MJPUFF said...

Can you run the math for China and give us a more likely scenario than China is reporting?

Scot Rafkin said...

The math relies on the input data. As China is the only source of data from China, it will only show what they want us to see, assuming they are manipulating the data. My understanding is their data shows a leveling off and then decrease effectively to something close to zero new cases.