Yesterday, March 27th, we did pass the 100,000 cumulative case mark. Although the exponential models had been indicating for nearly two weeks that it should have happened a day earlier, changes in the trend just a couple of days prior shifted the event by one day. It doesn't seem like much of a difference, but it is a big deal. See the divergence of the best-fit curves in the figure below? The lower, yellow curve is the trend from the last three days. The orange is 10 days. The blue is all the data. Follow each of those curves into the future and note when they predict we will hit 1,000,000. The 3-day curve indicates April 8. The 10-day is April 6. The full data predicts April 5. That's a four to five day difference, and that's a lot considering April is just days away. Let's hope the short-term trend holds and slows even more. The curve is flattening, albeit slowly. The daily rate of change curve shows the same.
Unlike the cumulative cases, the death rate is accelerating. The short-term curve is slightly above the long-term trend. This is because it is a lagging indicator, as discussed yesterday. In principle, we won't see a flattening of this curve for at least 10 days (and likely more) beyond where the cumulative cases began to flatten. Thus, if the exponential model with the expected lag holds, we should reach 10,000 deaths unimpeded on or around April 5, a little over one week from now.
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