The slightly flattened curve continues with, perhaps, ever so slightly more flattening. The 10-day orange trend has now clearly departed from the initial exponential rise (blue) and is currently indicating a 4.3 doubling rate. At that rate we will reach 1,000,000 total cases on or about the 10th, one week from now. The three day average (yellow dots/gray line), which captures most strongly the current data is just below the 10-day line. That slight difference isn't great, but it can have a big difference as time goes on due to the nature of exponential functions. I caution, however, that three days of data is probably not statistically significant, so extreme caution should be exercised in the interpretation. If the three-day trend stays that way consistently for more days, the confidence of further flattening increases. And, as I feel obligated to state almost every day, testing sucks! As my colleague, Dr. Scott Anderson, who provided the Colorado data the other day, pointed out, tests are growing linearly in Colorado whereas cases are growing exponentially. Testing is getting farther behind every day.
Total deaths continue their rise unabated. The three-day trend in death rates shows some flattening, but as discussed above, I wouldn't get too excited yet. Let's see if that sticks. Let's hope that it sticks. Using the 10-day trend, we will hit 10,000 deaths in the next couple of days. 100,000 deaths will be a little over week later.
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