I'm posting today's numbers tonight rather than waiting until the morning as usual. This good doctor has a busy day tomorrow, so I want to clear this off my to-do list tonight. Be prepared tomorrow to hear the press talk about big jumps in deaths and infections over the last day. If you've been following my posts, you'll know that this is not reality. Instead, it's the usual weekly oscillation in numbers. If you couldn't see it in prior data, it's plain as day now. Take a look below at the daily new cases or the daily deaths. Count the blue dots and note how cleanly they rise and fall over a 7-day period. Up and down like clockwork. Today was the predictable big jump up, just like in previous weeks. This is almost certainly the catch-up bookkeeping of weekend numbers.
The Gompertz model fits continue to look pretty good. I'll provide an update toward the end of the week, but based on what I'm seeing so far, I don't expect any major changes. By all accounts, we are past the peak of new daily infections. This means that, on average, there will be fewer infections each day. The overall number of cases is still going up, however. But, we are no longer in exponential growth. For now. The loosening of restrictions in some states could change that. And, don't forget that all of these statistics are strongly weighted to the New York metropolitan area (including New Jersey), where numbers are falling nicely.
Nearly the same story is found in the death rates and total deaths, but deaths lag infections. We should see a peak in the death rate tomorrow or thereabouts. After that, we should start seeing, on average, fewer deaths each day. This assumes that the loosening of restrictions doesn't send us back in the wrong direction. That scenario is possible.
No comments:
Post a Comment