After reaching the highest number of new infections just a few days ago, numbers have plummeted to the lowest they've been in nearly a month. Yesterday's 22,000 new cases are just a little over where the model predicts they should be. The data variability makes no sense in terms of a natural system. The behavior has to be due to some combination of reporting cycles over the period of a week combined with an overall increase in testing ability. Superimposed on that is almost certainly a signal due to changes in the policies of individual states. Depending on which data set you believe, we are about to cross or have just crossed 1,000,000 recorded cases. This is an artificial number and the number of actual infections is almost certainly 10 or 20 times greater.
Daily deaths have also dipped to lows that have not been seen since early in the month. The last two days have been substantially below the model trend, but I expect the numbers to rise, as they typically do through the weekdays. Deaths should not be strongly tied to testing availability, but the data still suffers from reporting inconsistencies. We have crossed the 50,000 dead mark.
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