Although I post the daily statistics each day, the interpretation of these data really comes down to two days each week: the day of the minimum and the day of the maximum. If you look at the daily deaths below, you'll see that we hit the weekly peak a couple of days ago. It was much lower than the previous week, which is good because the previous peak was a record high. And then the minimum value last week dropped it back below the Gompertz model curve. This drop brought the average back closer to the model. In the next few days, we'll see what this week's minimum will be. Will it be lower than the value on May 10? It looks like it will need to be 600 or below if the average is to maintain adherence to the Gompertz model.
In the meantime, the daily new cases continue the very slow linear downtrend. Will that continue? We had a peak a couple of days ago that was close to the previous week. If this week's low isn't lower than last week then the downward trend will be broken and we will be either steady and increasing again.
More than a week ago I analyzed the increase in testing in comparison to the reported new cases. Testing is still increasing and it is difficult to tease out what fraction of the trend in new cases is due to the testing. The more you test, the more cases you expect to confirm, at least up to a point. The fact that cases have been slowly decreasing could be considered a good sign.
So, the next couple of days will be filler while we await the minimum values for the week.
down to waiting to see where the weekly minimum and maximum end up. Everything else is filler.
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