New day, same data trends. The daily new cases are not dropping, but holding fairly constant if you smooth out the weekly oscillations. I've added a new linear trendline based on the last 7 days (Edit: changed from 10 days) worth of data. The slope of this line is 26,445 (Edit: changed from 28,501) new cases/day. That's effectively the 7-day (Edit: changed from 10-day) average. I'll keep an eye on that number to see if it changes substantially in one direction or the other. I'm still plotting the red Gompertz model, which is clearly no longer valid.
Deaths, on the other hand, remain consistent with the model. They are inconsistent with growing infections. We will know in the next week whether the daily death curve starts to move sideways in concert with infections, or whether it will decrease, as would be expected on the slow downward glide slope of a waning pandemic. Based on the public displays of idiocy I've seen reported in the press, I expect the deaths to start moving sideways. And then up again.
Edits: I decided to use a 7-day linear fit since the oscillation has a period of 7 days. A 10-day fit is likely to bias the result. The numbers above have been updated, and I've updated the cumulative case figure below.
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