Daily deaths continue a nice average decrease and are following the Gompertz model. I didn't expect such good agreement this late into the pandemic. Per yesterday's post, I note that the data I'm using shows us at ~92,000 deaths which is many thousand away from the grim 100,000 mark. Your data source may be different. I have no way of knowing what data set is correct. They can't all be correct and yet different at the same time. They're probably all wrong. What I can say is that my data is fully traceable and verifiable to the source. Based on the Gompertz model and using my data I show 100,000 on or about June 8. Rest assured the media will find the most grim data set they can and use that to claim we've hit 100,000. What they won't do is pay much attention to the reliability of that data. Nevertheless, 100,000 we will hit soon.
Speaking of media, I continue to see reports about how some state had a big daily increase in the number of cases. That may be technically true, but given the noise in the day-to-day statistics such daily data are little more than curiosities. It's the longer trend that matters. If high numbers continue, on average, it means something. Beware of media porn.
Here are today's stats and plots.
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