As usual, we need to be very careful about daily numbers, because the weekly oscillation has a strong signal, and yesterday and today are usually near the peak of that oscillation. Nevertheless, the daily number of new infections yesterday was significant. It was the highest number reported since the pandemic began. You could chalk some of that up to increased testing. We are testing far more than we were back at the end of April when the prior record was set. However, that explanation must be tempered by the fact that many states are now only reporting confirmed cases and are not counting presumptive cases like they were back in April. Anecdotally, hospitals in Texas, California, and Florida are reporting a noticeable increase in volume. These three states are responsible for the bulk of the increase.
While the most populous states are getting attention, don't forget about many other states that are seeing a dramatic rise. They may not contribute as much in sheer numbers to the national rise, but proportionately they are just as concerning.
None of this should be surprising. The virus is a simple reproductive machine. It's reproductive and replication method is straightforward. If you provide an environment for it to reproduce it will reproduce. When people come into contact at businesses and other locations, that is a suitable environment for viral transmission. It's especially suitable if masks are not being used. The gym I belong to proudly announced they were re-opening a little over a week ago. You have to wear a mask when coming and going, but not during your workout. What could possibly go wrong with a bunch of people breathing heavily in close proximity with a virus that is transmitted by respiratory aerosols?
Not only have many states re-opened businesses, which you should more properly think of as a re-opening of the viral reproductive environment, but none of the states have put into place any coordinated plan to deal with the inevitable rise in viral transmission. The whole thing is tragically idiotic if not criminal. It's criminal at the state level because the increase in infections was inevitable in the absence of effective policy such as contact tracing and testing. It's criminal at the federal level, because this is a national problem, not a state problem, and the federal government has been purposefully derelict in its primary Constitutional function. When I say criminal, I mean criminal. People will unnecessarily die. People should go to prison for this.
Back to the numbers...I've added an exponential fit to the 7-day average of the new daily cases. I started the curve fit at June 9, which is by my eye about when the average started taking off. As of right now, the doubling rate for new infections is about 18 days. Let's keep an eye on that number. I expect the doubling time will get shorter. Individually, California appears to have a doubling time of roughly one week. Texas and Florida are perhaps a few days more.
The death rate has not noticeably changed, although there are hints that the long-term decrease is leveling off. I expect the death rates will eventually rise. It just takes a while for people to die after they've been infected. As discussed numerous times before, the death rate over the next few weeks is already baked into the cake. The people that will die in a couple of weeks from now are already infected. There's nothing to be done about it. Have a nice day.
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