COVID-19 July 04, 2020

Data continues to show that are blowing past what we saw in the first wave.  And, yes, I do believe there was a first wave, contrary to what many are saying.  We are not still in the first wave.  There was a pronounced initial rise, a clear peak, and a gradual but persistent decrease.  That's a wave by most definitions.  It could be said that the first wave brought in the tide that didn't completely recede, but it is a wave nonetheless.  We've now seen a dramatic reversal of trends as the next wave comes in on top of the higher tide.  This is the second wave, and in terms of sheer numbers it is bigger.  Note that the data plotted in green on the new case graph shows the data since June 9 shifted and displayed over the first wave data.  The rate of rise is similar, but we've blown past the peak of the first wave.

Will the second wave be worse than the first?  Hard to say, but it seems likely.  Deaths still have not taken a rapid upward trajectory, but with hospitals and ICUs starting to reach capacity in the hardest hit areas it's hard to see how deaths will not start to increase.  The downward trend has certainly slowed and the 7-day trend has actually shown a slow increase rather than decrease.  See my previous posts over the last few days for additional thoughts about why this is.

Data is plotted below, as usual.  The best fit 7-day line shows just under 50,000 new cases/day.  The exponential fit to the new cases shows a doubling rate of close to 15 days.  This number has, fortunately, more or less stabilized and is no longer rapidly shrinking.  If and when we start to flatten the curve of this wave, we will need to see the doubling rate rise consistently. 

Have a good 4th!  My dog, Layla, thanks you for going easy on the boom booms.

EDIT: I reposted the daily new cases graph b/c I somehow managed to mess up some of the date labels in the original post. Data has not changed.