COVID-19 July 09, 2020

The 7-day average of daily deaths has taken a decisive upward direction.  It seemed almost inescapable that this would happen given the upward trend of new cases, new hospitalizations, and ICU admissions.  It's too early to attach a growth rate to the death trend just yet.  I expect it will have an exponential growth rate, but it's not possible yet to say what that is.  Maybe in about a week.  It certainly seems unlikely to start going back down.  The rate of new infections is continuing its exponential growth and is still at about a 14-day doubling rate.  I did once again have to adjust the y-axis to accommodate the ever-growing numbers.  Seems like that's going to be a regular exercise for the foreseeable future.