COVID-19 July 11, 2020

I am continuing to overlay a shifted version of the current wave of new infections on top of the original. The rate of increase has been about the same, but unlike the first wave, the current wave is continuing to go up.  The best fit exponential growth curve for the current wave may be showing a very, very slight flattening.  The peak growth rate I saw was about 14.5 days and it is now about 17 days.  That could just be natural variation.

It is also important to note that in the first wave we had very poor testing capabilities and many of the states were lumping presumptive cases together with the confirmed.  Testing capabilities have now improved, although still not to where they need be, and so we should expect to be identifying more cases.  At the same time, many of the states are now counting only confirmed cases.  So, in short, the data from the first wave has a different basis behind it than the current wave.  IIf information was readily available it should be possible to normalize these data to a common standard, but the information isn't readily available and I don't have the time to mess with it.  Just be aware and beware of what you're looking at. Caveat emptor.