"It seems that at least some of the criminally negligent state leaders have suddenly become aware of the trends. Time to hit the pause button on re-opening, they say. Nope. Wrong answer. Today's data is a reflection of the conditions two or more weeks ago. Pausing simply means that the conditions that allowed for the explosion of new cases will remain in place. So, we'll tread water for a few more weeks until the situation becomes catastrophic, and then we'll probably see some back-tracking to more restrictive policies."
And so, here we are. California is the first to not just pause re-opening, but to reinstitute restrictions. Meanwhile, the less enlightened states like Florida, Texas, Arizona, and Georgia continue marching into the fire. All of this was predictable. Inevitable. The virus is a simple biological machine. Replication follows simple biological laws and those biological laws are represented by exponential growth functions. There is no way that reopening is going to work unless it comes with other measures that include massive testing, tracing, and rapid localized quarantine.
"Today's data is a reflection of the conditions two or more weeks ago". I wonder how many dead will be piled up in the hospital hallways in a couple weeks in those states that continue with their ill-advised policies. Those dead are baked into the cake. Nothing we can do about it. How long before those states will finally reverse course?
The numbers from yesterday should be close to the low spot for the week. I think the numbers from the rest of this week are likely to be simultaneously shocking but also not surprising. Totally predictable. Completely criminal.
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