It's been a while since I did a "Colorado Special". I figured this might be a good time, especially since decisions need to be made about sending kids back to school.
The 7-day average daily infection rate is higher than ever in Colorado, and the trend indicates a continued increase. Some caution needs to be exercised with this statement. First, testing is much higher now that it was early on. All other things being equal, the number of identified infections should go up even if the actual infection rate were the same. At the same time, Colorado started reporting only confirmed cases (i.e., positive tests) rather than confirmed plus presumptive on April 25. This is why there is a big discontinuity in the daily infection data at that date. See the big downward drop? I've circled it in red. Even so, it didn't take more than a couple of weeks for new infections to go above and beyond the numbers prior to the change. I'll also add that I personally know some people in the state that have been waiting for almost three weeks to get test results. Many that were infected weeks ago won't show up in the stats until the tests come back.
Around May 5th, the daily infections began to drop fairly steadily. We were in the height of the lock-down and it worked. Then, around June 14 the numbers began to climb. This coincides, roughly, with the loosening of restrictions. Shocking, I know. It's almost as if...as if science works. Who knew? Colorado numbers are going up even though the 7-day average for the country has stabilized in the last week. Be careful with averages. Even in Colorado, the trends in counties and cities can be extremely different.
I'll make this point explicit: Cases are increasing even though we haven't yet sent thousands and thousands of students and staff back into enclosed buildings for 7 hours per day. You do the math. If anyone is wondering, I'm keeping my high-schooler at home; he will be attending via an on-line school option. I'm lucky that my school has provided this option. We do have the option to send the kids back to school on a hybrid system that includes both in-class (50% of the time) and on-line (50% of the time) instruction. I'm fortunate that I'm in a position to do the on-line option. Not everyone can. Some will be forced to send their kids into the grand petri dish experiment because they have to work or for other reasons. Who will be held responsible if this all goes horribly wrong?
I'll make this point explicit: Cases are increasing even though we haven't yet sent thousands and thousands of students and staff back into enclosed buildings for 7 hours per day. You do the math. If anyone is wondering, I'm keeping my high-schooler at home; he will be attending via an on-line school option. I'm lucky that my school has provided this option. We do have the option to send the kids back to school on a hybrid system that includes both in-class (50% of the time) and on-line (50% of the time) instruction. I'm fortunate that I'm in a position to do the on-line option. Not everyone can. Some will be forced to send their kids into the grand petri dish experiment because they have to work or for other reasons. Who will be held responsible if this all goes horribly wrong?
The 7-day average death rate bottomed out around July 4. It was darn near zero. Since that time, the death rates have been climbing. This is expected given the increase in infections and the lag between an infection and death. As cases increase and hospitals begin to get filled again, deaths should also increase. If there's any good news it's that medical professionals have learned a lot about how to best treat the infections with the tools at hand. No doubt that many who would have died in March and April will survive because of improved treatment options.
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