Wave number two is leveling off. Sort of. New daily cases have been dropping since about July 19. Within the last week that trend has stopped and we've reached a plateau. We'll have to wait and see if that's a temporary pause, whether we'll continue down, or whether we'll start on a wild ride up again. Interestingly, California came in with big numbers yesterday: 12,500. That's the highest number since July 22. It's just one day, so it may not mean anything. It's something to watch, however. I'll also be watching what happens as kids return to school.
The death rate dropped last week around the time the hurricane threatened Florida and when Texas switched to a new reporting system. You can see the drop in numbers around day 212. After that it plateaued. This is an odd behavior, but it could be related to Texas and Florida numbers catching up. We will have to see if this is a temporary pause or whether we're about to go up or continue down. I expect deaths to mirror the new cases with a lag of about three weeks. To see deaths plateau around the same time as the new cases, with effectively no lag, is odd.
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