COVID-19 July 26, 2020

A short post today because it's the weekend and I've got work, yard work, and BASEBALL to watch.  There's nothing really new anyway.  New infection rates continue to hold steady. Deaths continue to increase.  Your state may vary. 

COVID-19 July 25, 2020 : COLORADO SPECIAL

It's been a while since I did a "Colorado Special".  I figured this might be a good time, especially since decisions need to be made about sending kids back to school. 

The 7-day average daily infection rate is higher than ever in Colorado, and the trend indicates a continued increase.  Some caution needs to be exercised with this statement.  First, testing is much higher now that it was early on.  All other things being equal, the number of identified infections should go up even if the actual infection rate were the same.  At the same time, Colorado started reporting only confirmed cases (i.e., positive tests) rather than confirmed plus presumptive on April 25.  This is why there is a big discontinuity in the daily infection data at that date.  See the big downward drop?  I've circled it in red. Even so, it didn't take more than a couple of weeks for new infections to go above and beyond the numbers prior to the change.  I'll also add that I personally know some people in the state that have been waiting for almost three weeks to get test results.  Many that were infected weeks ago won't show up in the stats until the tests come back. 

Around May 5th, the daily infections began to drop fairly steadily.  We were in the height of the lock-down and it worked.  Then, around June 14 the numbers began to climb.  This coincides, roughly, with the loosening of restrictions.  Shocking, I know.  It's almost as if...as if science works.  Who knew?  Colorado numbers are going up even though the 7-day average for the country has stabilized in the last week.  Be careful with averages.  Even in Colorado, the trends in counties and cities can be extremely different. 

I'll make this point explicit:  Cases are increasing even though we haven't yet sent thousands and thousands of students and staff back into enclosed buildings for 7 hours per day.  You do the math.  If anyone is wondering, I'm keeping my high-schooler at home; he will be attending via an on-line school option.  I'm lucky that my school has provided this option.  We do have the option to send the kids back to school on a hybrid system that includes both in-class (50% of the time) and on-line (50% of the time) instruction.  I'm fortunate that I'm in a position to do the on-line option.  Not everyone can.  Some will be forced to send their kids into the grand petri dish experiment because they have to work or for other reasons.  Who will be held responsible if this all goes horribly wrong? 

The 7-day average death rate bottomed out around July 4.  It was darn near zero.  Since that time, the death rates have been climbing.  This is expected given the increase in infections and the lag between an infection and death.  As cases increase and hospitals begin to get filled again, deaths should also increase.  If there's any good news it's that medical professionals have learned a lot about how to best treat the infections with the tools at hand.  No doubt that many who would have died in March and April will survive because of improved treatment options. 

COVID-19 July 25, 2020

Infection rates continue to hold steady at about 65,000 per day.  I've added a "zoom" plot that shows the infection data since about June 9.  This makes it easier to see the most recent data and trends.  It's clear by eyeball that things are more or less steady. 

Deaths, on the other hand, continue to rise.  Not much more to say about that. 

COVID-19 July 24, 2020

Despite the news headlines, the national 7-day average infection rate has slowed and nearly leveled off.  That's an average across the country.  That doesn't mean there aren't states where cases are continuing to grow rapidly.  There are! But, on average things have stabilized.  It also doesn't mean it will stay this way. I doubt it will.  I suspect the new and upcoming states will start to take over and we will see the curve tick up again. 

The death rates are continuing to grow, as expected.  It is interesting to compare the current growth rate of deaths to that of the initial growth back in March.  It's quite clear that the deaths are growing more slowly now.  Why?  There are lots of possibilities.  Better treatments? Certainly.  Different demographics of the afflicted? Seems likely.  Mutation or dominance of a less aggressive virus? No strong evidence for this, but still possible. Change in how deaths are counted or attributed to COVID-19? To some degree, but it probably isn't a huge factor.  Other possibilities? Almost certainly.

 

COVID-19 July 23, 2020

The 7-day average of new infections is still holding relatively steady.  Yesterday it crept up a bit, but it was also down a bit two days prior.  Deaths, on the other hand, continue upward.  There is some indication that the growth in death rates is starting to accelerate.  For example, the 7-day death rate last week was increasing at less than 2% per day while it is now over 4%.  Whether this is the start of exponential growth remains to be seen.

COVID-19 July 22, 2020

The number of new infections, on average, continued to hold steady yesterday.  Will this hold? The maximum numbers for the week should start to roll in over the next few days.  If those numbers stay at or below the values from the week before then the current plateau becomes increasingly statistically significant.  For now, the total number of new infections has leveled off at about 65,000 per day. 

It is also important to remember that the national, average numbers are just that.  Early on (March and April) the numbers were dominated by the New York metro area.  Now the numbers are dominated by California, Florida, and Texas.  The fact that the national average has leveled off, at least temporarily, doesn't mean that things aren't going quickly up or down at the state or local level.  Some states with smaller populations can get lost in the mix.  As an example, Louisiana and Arizona have per capita infection numbers that are larger than California, Florida, and Texas.  Arizona seems to have leveled off in terms of new infections, but Louisiana has not.  Kansas--a low population state--still has growing infections. 

The average death rate is continuing its upward trend.  It is still more linear than exponential.  When the first wave hit the peak in deaths occurred about three weeks after the peak in infections.  If that behavior holds, we still have at least two weeks of increasing deaths until peak.  But, past performance is no guarantee of future success. 

COVID-19 July 21, 2020

The 7-day average of new infections has made a move downward.  This is the first time since June 6 that rates have decreased.  For this reason, I have removed the best fit exponential curve.  If this holds, the curve has once again flattened, but this time we've plateaued at over 65,000 cases/day.  We were at about 20,000/day in early June and had a peak of about 31,000 back in early April.  Two steps forward, ten steps back.  Thank you covidiots!

Deaths are continuing to climb.  This should continue for at least another week or three due to the lag between infections and death.