COVID-19 March 20: Update and Some Soap-boxing

The final score from yesterday, March 19, was just shy of 12,000. Not only did the number of infections bust through the 10,000 mark, as predicted, but it did so decisively. This is not altogether surprising. The short-term trend was underpredicting reality because of inadequate testing. Now that the testing is starting to ramp up, the number of confirmed cases is increasing above the predictions that were based on the artificially low numbers. As seen in the graph below, the short-term trend continues to close in on the longer-term trend. Per yesterday's discussion, I expect the orange line to rise above the long-term blue line once testing really gets going. The simple exponential model still does a reasonable job of informing us of what to expect. The next stop is 100,000 cases, and that will be on or around March 26, one week from now. Of course, the large increase in cases over the last day did nothing to help flatten the curve. In the second graph below, you can see the slope not only getting steeper, but rising above both the short- and long-term trends. I'm now also showing the doubling time and decadaling time (increase by a factor of 10), which stand at 2.5 days and 8.5 days, respectively. As in previous posts, click on the images for hi-res.

Today, I'd like to focus on an important point that seems to be lost in the noise: Decisions being made today should be based on what the numbers will be two or more weeks from now. Today's numbers are only relevant in that they can provide a good estimate of what those future numbers will be. There is almost nothing we can do to change the numbers between now and two weeks from now. The cases that will show up over the next two week period are from people that are already infected or will be in the next day or two. The trajectory has been set. Our fate has been sealed. In two weeks, on April 3, we will be approaching at least 500,000 cases if you follow the short-term trend line, or nearly 1,000,000 based on the long-term trend. Given the increase in testing, the 1 million is likely an underestimate. There is nothing we can do about this. Previous decisions and lack of needed action were the recipe ingredients that baked the cake that will emerge in two weeks.

A huge problem is that the media, the public, and the politicians are far too focused on what happened between yesterday and today. How many new cases are there? How many more died? I have admittedly been part of this problem with my previous posts. The real story is that in two weeks we will have something like 1 million infected people. And, that's just the ones we will know about. The actual number is probably many factors higher, because not everyone is tested and some show little to no symptoms. Policy decisions are, unfortunately, being made based on current numbers. That's bad policy. "The numbers aren't bad enough to warrant a complete shutdown of the city or the state", say the mayor or governor. Wrong. Stop thinking about today's numbers, and base your decisions on what should be done if the numbers two weeks from now were staring you in the face, because they will be. And in two weeks, after having failed to grasp the idea of what time does to an exponential function, the same politicians will make the same mistake, failing to recognize that two weeks later yet again, the numbers will be another 100 times larger.

Governor Newsom of California is the first politician to quarantine an entire state. Not just any state, but the State of California. Perhaps he understands that his actions have a two-week delay attached to them. Unfortunately, the state-wide shelter in place probably should have happened two weeks prior. If it had, then the effects of that order would start to take effect today. Instead, we wait, helpless, for two weeks as people get sick and many die. Other leaders in every state need to follow Governor Newsom's lead. We can't wait for the federal government to do it; the person in charge is incapable of grasping the situation.

So, stop focusing on the numbers from yesterday, today, or tomorrow. Think about where we will be in two weeks, because we WILL be there and predictably so. Take actions today based on the future, not on the past and present. What should be done today knowing that in two weeks there will roughly 1 million known cases? What should be done knowing that there is nothing we can do to change the number two weeks from now? What should be done today knowing that hospitals will be well beyond capacity, that there will be insufficient ventilators, that the doctors and nurses we depend on to treat the sick will not have the personal protective equipment they need to stay healthy themselves, and that the people still working the basic services and infrastructure that we need to remain functioning begin to fail? Act today as if it is two weeks from now.

EDIT: I realize I was a little sloppy with my words and in the graph below. Actions taken today can have an immediate effect. But, we will not see that effect in the data for about two weeks. I shall strive to be more precise.