New reported cases continue to closely follow the exponential model (first figure below). With testing continuing to ramp up, new cases have actually slightly exceeded the model predictions and have caused the curve to steepen, not flatten (second figure below). I do believe this is a bias due to increased testing and not an actual change in the true rate of transmission. Yesterday's numbers bring the short-term trend ever closer to the long-term trend, as discussed in previous updates. The doubling time is approximately 2.4 days now. Just the other day, I noted that we had smashed through the 10,000 mark. It took something like 22 days to reach that point, depending on exactly when you start counting. Some time today, we will almost certainly break 20,000. It took weeks to reach 10,000 and only two days to then double that number. The power of exponents!
A number of states have started to follow California's lead, filling the leadership vacuum at the federal level. New York is perhaps among the most important, as it accounts for approximatley 40% of all cases right now. Better late than never. Some other state leaders still don't get it. They don't think it's bad enough yet. They don't understand that they are one or two weeks away from being New York (see my post from yesterday). With New York, California, and few other states now on some sort of lockdown, the rate of growth in those places should start to slow, but it will take 10 to 14 days before we start to see the effect in the data (also see my post from yesterday). While the new restrictions should help, they may not be strict enough, as we've seen in Italy. Time will tell, but time is also the enemy.
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