Look at the Daily Rate of Change graph and the Daily Death Rate graph to see how different yesterday's numbers are from the historical trend.
Monday, April 6, 2020
COVID-19 April 05, 2020
Are you an optimist or a pessimist? The optimist will take the view that yesterday's numbers are good. The number of new cases dropped dramatically, and we failed to reach 10,000 deaths due to a drop in the number of daily deaths. The pessimist will look at the numbers from yesterday and find them improbable. I'm an optimistic pessimist. I hope the numbers are real, but they look very suspicious. I saw a similar pattern in the data from last Sunday, and I suspect the low numbers are a result of numbers either not being officially tallied by the state health departments or the state health departments not reporting a complete tally. Last week, a spike in numbers came in on Monday and Tuesday after seemingly low numbers on Sunday. Let's see what happens this week.
Look at the Daily Rate of Change graph and the Daily Death Rate graph to see how different yesterday's numbers are from the historical trend.
Look at the Daily Rate of Change graph and the Daily Death Rate graph to see how different yesterday's numbers are from the historical trend.
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I'm a little of both but I also understand the realities of high volume centralized lab testing and lean a little more to the pessimist side, for now.
In commercial lab testing we do see an ebb and flow around the weekends. Typically a drop off in resulting on the weekends and then a pop on Mondays. I've worked at four different commercial labs and we saw the highest percentage of new samples Tuesday and then Thursday/Fridays. A difference of 2-3% but it will depend on the journey of the sample: from collection to pre-analtyics, analytics, to post to, and to resulting.
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