I thought I'd follow up with a little bit more analysis and data. I'll let you decide. Below is a plot of the number of new infections each day. The reported data is in blue. The orange data represents predicted numbers based on a Gompertz model. I've plotted this on a linear scale rather than the log scale I've typically been using. The linear scale lets you see variations easier than a log scale. See those last two points? I've circled them in red. Those are the data that were reported on Sunday and Monday. To my eye, the Sunday data is way, way out of family with every other data point up to that point. The Monday data is a little better in that it is at least increasing again. I've seen similar aberrations previously. I've circled those in green. The earlier times aren't as obvious as the ones this weekend, but that's because all the numbers were much smaller back then. But, the blips are there. There are similar patterns in many, but not all, of the 50 states. Anyone want to lay odds that we'll see the same pattern next weekend?
In the meantime, what I believe to be spurious data is affecting the trends. So, for now, those low numbers have slightly slowed the doubling rate. I've seen a lot of press and reports stating how good the numbers were this weekend. I would exercise caution. Those numbers could be real. Or not.
4 comments:
another great breakdown. I truly appreciate your daily posts.
Have you read this?:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-out-of-many-one-36b886af37e9
"... Hubei shut down with 444 confirmed cases, and ended up with close to 70,000 cases and 3,200 deaths. As a rule of thumb, a region that has more cases than Hubei but hasn’t taken the same measures as Hubei at least as early as them is very likely to end up with both more cases and more deaths than Hubei..."
I did see that article. I noted elsewhere that while the virus is indiscriminate, natural selection is not. The stupid will be disproportionately culled. Unfortunately, natural selection isn't always precise. The virus will take out many others in collateral damage.
100% - and the stupid still can't buy a clue.
My family and I are on day 25 of self isolation/stay and shelter. The kids haven't left the house but to only go outside and play. Only one person goes to the store at a time. Meanwhile, the rest of Florida, is acting like it's another hurricane party and will take others down with them.
All these clowns are asking for an authoritarian government.
Anyway, I look forward to your next update.
There is an intersection of those that don't believe it and are at the same time complaining about their "constitutional rights". What they can't seem to grasp is that they are the primary reason why this is going to drag on forever. If everyone would just stop for a few weeks we'd be done. Period. The virus doesn't open doors, but it's happy to follow you into the house. There are some that have to be out and about to keep society functioning, but I suspect a substantial portion of new cases is not those people. It's dumbasses that could have easily avoided infection if they had taken appropriate precautions. Too bad we can't definitively identify them when it comes time to decide who gets the last ventilator. And so we remain in lockdown...and the complainers responsible for it continue to complain.
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