With today's numbers hot off the press, the range of possible Gompertz model outcomes has narrowed. Baring some strange event, I feel reasonably confident with the Colorado predictions. What does "reasonably confident" mean? I think they are upper limits and the actual numbers will not be more than about 30% higher at most, probably lower. Maybe I'll eat some crow later. We'll see. Maybe I'll eat some crow later. We'll see.
So what do the numbers say? The Gompertz model (see previous posts about this model) predicts 20,000 total infections. The number of new daily cases will peak at 441 on April 11. Colorado will reach 10,000 cases--halfway to the final number--on April 18. Final deaths will be 800. The peak number of daily deaths will be 18 on April 15. Colorado will reach 400 deaths--halfway to the final number--on April 21.
What's interesting about these predictions is that the Gompertz growth rate for both infections and deaths is the same: 0.06. Yet, the curve fits for both data sets were arrived at independently. The fact that they have the same growth rate provides a good amount of confidence in the predictions. Assuming that deaths are proportional to the number of infections, you'd expect to see the growth rate be about the same. Furthermore, note that the peak in deaths and the halfway point for deaths lags the infection case milestones by about four days. This delay between the official infection report and death is reasonable. Thus, the two model results for infections and death are consistent.
1 comment:
Thanks for this. I am now teaching myself the Gompertz Function to see if I can model FL out.
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