With last weekend now in the rearview mirror, the systematic bias of weekend reporting becomes increasing clear. Let's start with the daily death rate. The numbers on Sunday and Monday had fallen compared to prior days. There was a lot of press about this. You can see this very clearly, because I've switched to a linear axis for these data. Then yesterday's numbers came in, and the press switched to reporting that we had the highest numbers of daily deaths yet recorded. In fact, you can see that yesterday's data falls very close to where it should be based on both the 10-day exponential trend and the Gompertz model. The real story, which is still being missed, is that Sunday's and Monday's numbers are bullshit.
Total deaths continue upward. The trend is continuing to flatten with the 10-day exponential and three-day exponential models below the long term exponential. Some of the flattening, however, is a result of the bias in the weekend numbers. I expect fairly large increases today through Friday as the backlog of both tests and deaths hits the books.
The total number of infections has also departed from the long term exponential fit; the curve is also flattening. I've plotted the total infections on a linear axis to make this more obvious. The daily rate of change of infections is still going upward. You can see the discontinuity and offset of the data in the last three days resulting from the biased weekend data.
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