COVID-19 May 15, 2020

I usually try not to pay to much attention to the day-to-day variations but yesterday's report on new infections is interesting. If you look back over the past three weeks, you'll notice that the weekly peak was lower each week and the weekly minimum was also lower each week.  Yesterday, the daily new cases exceeded last week's peak.  Is this the start of a new trend?  I've been anticipating something like this since the States started re-opening, and it's about the right time between those policy changes and the emergence of symptoms from those infect about two weeks ago.  Stay tuned.

The death statistics are still in line with the model.  Deaths should lag the infections by two weeks or so, so the new cases should be a leading indicator of future deaths.  Stay tuned for that, too.