COVID-19 June 03, 2020

Yesterday's death toll came in higher than the Gompertz model (again) and is clearly indicating a change in the slow decrease that we've seen for a month or more.  It's now flat if not slightly increasing.  The next few days should be when the highest numbers for the week roll in.  Unless they are much lower than expected, it's hard to see how this new trend is going to reverse. 

Meanwhile, the daily new infections are still bouncing at or just above 20,000 per day.  There is a slight indication of an increase in the rate in 7-day average, but not enough to call it a reversal of the trend.  For context, we are currently at daily rates that are comparable to what they were at the end of March.  On the other hand, the peak 7-day average was just a bit over 30,000 in early April.  So, while things have improved compared to the peak, the numbers are still high, and this is after the fairly austere policies that have been in place for months.