COVID-19 June 12, 2020

Today is a perfect example of how screwed up the data is and how difficult it is to analytically follow the pandemic.  The data from yesterday shows -3926 cases and -87 deaths in Puerto Rico.  Yes, those are minus signs.  As of yesterday PR decided to reclassify how they count infections and deaths.  Only confirmed cases and deaths (i.e., through testing) are now counted and presumptive and likely cases and deaths are not.  Fine.  Do it how you want.  But, they adjusted their numbers in one fell swoop on a single day.  So, what I have now is a series of daily numbers that include confirmed and presumptive cases with no way of knowing which are which.  And then, yesterday, a big adjustment.  What am I supposed to do with this?  How are those 3926 cases and 87 deaths distributed over the prior data?  Who knows.  Well, someone knows, but they aren't telling.

PR is not unique.  These types of adjustments happen periodically in many states and there is insufficient information to go back and retroactively adjust the prior daily numbers.  So, today's case numbers have a big 3926 chunk taken out that isn't reflective of what happened yesterday.  And there are 87 deaths subtracted out.  Obviously, that's going to mess up daily and 7-day trends.  But, there you have it.

PR is one of the states/territories that I've been watching as a potential hotspot.  I try my hardest not to be conspiratorial, especially these days, but it is coincidental that this adjustment is being made right when things appear to be exploding.  Other states like Texas, Florida, Arizona, California, and Utah (this is not an inclusive list) are also starting to see upward breakouts in cases.  This is unlikely to be entirely due to increased testing.

COVID-19 June 07, 2020

Once again, nothing new to report.  The trends are trending as they have.  A handful of states continue to show some breakout statistics.  I expect more of that, and if enough hop on that train we will start to see it reflected in the national tally.

COVID-19 June 06, 2020

I've been showing the Gompertz curve along with both the infection data and the death data.  The Gompertz model failed long ago for the infections, which have plateaued for weeks rather than decreasing as the model predicted.  In the last couple of weeks, the death statistics have also departed from the Gompertz model.  Neither of these is surprising.

Today, I attempted to fit new curves to the data, ignoring earlier data, and focusing instead on trying to better match more current data.  That exercise failed completely for the infection data.  There is no Gompertz curve (or similar so-called logistic/S curves that will fit the data).  The death data is a different story, however.  If you focus only on the data from about mid- to late-April and ignore prior data, there is a curve that shows a reasonably good fit. It's a terrible fit with the earlier data.  You can see that misfit when I plot the curve and data on the old semi-log plots.  The curve and the data are very far apart right up to April.

The new curve suggests a total death tally of 120,000.  Note that this number is the number based on the data set that I'm using, which tends to be lower than others by 10-20%.  So, if you prefer other data sets, my 120,000 would probably translate to something like 130,000-150,000.  As always, this assumes the data continues to follow the curve.  There is no reason to suspect that it will.  What the new Gompertz curve does do is give a more current baseline that can be used to provide context for the data.  Are we staying on the curve?  Rising above?  Falling below? 

Also, I've updated stats for Texas, which I'm showing below.  Texas is one of the states that seemed to be showing a noticeable increase in infections.  The analysis seems to bear that out.  There are others that seem to be showing similar trends.  I don't have time to analyze all those data.  There are other websites that allow you to see stats by state if you are inclined to dig further.

COVID-19 June 05, 2020

Another fairly short post today.  Trends continue to do their thing without much surprise.  I am watching a few states out of the corner of my eye: Texas, North Carolina, Florida.  These states look to breaking out ahead of the pack.  I'm also watching Puerto Rico, which is showing some possibly troubling numbers.  PR is particularly concerning because our fellow citizens have been hit so hard from natural disasters and the federal government doesn't care much for its brown, Spanish speaking citizens.

COVD-10 June 05, 2020

Same as yesterday.  Just plodding along.  Happy National Donut Day.

COVID-19 June 04, 2020

No real changes from yesterday.  Stay safe and don't let your guard down.  Although we no longer have the explosive growth we saw in early March, the number of new cases is not decreasing.  More importantly, there are currently more people infected that at any time in the past.  Going strictly by numbers, each day that goes by your chance of infection increases, at least if you're out there mixing it up with society.  On the other hand, mask use and general awareness may make a big enough dent in transmission probability that the risk of infection could be lower than in the past even though the overall number of cases is still growing.  In any case, this is no time for complacency.

COVID-19 June 03, 2020

Yesterday's death toll came in higher than the Gompertz model (again) and is clearly indicating a change in the slow decrease that we've seen for a month or more.  It's now flat if not slightly increasing.  The next few days should be when the highest numbers for the week roll in.  Unless they are much lower than expected, it's hard to see how this new trend is going to reverse. 

Meanwhile, the daily new infections are still bouncing at or just above 20,000 per day.  There is a slight indication of an increase in the rate in 7-day average, but not enough to call it a reversal of the trend.  For context, we are currently at daily rates that are comparable to what they were at the end of March.  On the other hand, the peak 7-day average was just a bit over 30,000 in early April.  So, while things have improved compared to the peak, the numbers are still high, and this is after the fairly austere policies that have been in place for months.