COVID-19 July 13, 2020

The numbers are in for the day and I'm going to post tonight instead of tomorrow morning.  Today and tomorrow should be down days in the weekly cycle, but that didn't stop some hefty numbers from coming in.  Still, we are down in both new cases and deaths for today, as expected. 

If we continue on the current trend we will see 100,000 new cases per day in about 10 days from now.  Per day. 100,000.  Wow.  Deaths are continuing to increase, on average, but the trend is too recent to be able to make any meaningful predictions other than "up".  The 7-day average of daily deaths is currently just under 700.  That's over three, full, 737-800s augering into the ground and killing everyone aboard every day.  I suspect things would be different if the news was showing three planes crashing to the ground every day for days on end.  Total deaths are now at or above 125,000 depending on what data you follow.   There were about 48,000 total combat deaths during the Vietnam war.  So, we're at about three Vietnam's now in less than 6 months.  Grim.

COVID-19 July 12, 2020

At some point, you just start to run out of things to say.  Things are going up.  But, I've already said that multiple times.  At least Disney World reopened in Florida.  Seems like a good idea.  And, that's about all you need to know about things in the US.

COVID-19 July 11, 2020

I am continuing to overlay a shifted version of the current wave of new infections on top of the original. The rate of increase has been about the same, but unlike the first wave, the current wave is continuing to go up.  The best fit exponential growth curve for the current wave may be showing a very, very slight flattening.  The peak growth rate I saw was about 14.5 days and it is now about 17 days.  That could just be natural variation.

It is also important to note that in the first wave we had very poor testing capabilities and many of the states were lumping presumptive cases together with the confirmed.  Testing capabilities have now improved, although still not to where they need be, and so we should expect to be identifying more cases.  At the same time, many of the states are now counting only confirmed cases.  So, in short, the data from the first wave has a different basis behind it than the current wave.  IIf information was readily available it should be possible to normalize these data to a common standard, but the information isn't readily available and I don't have the time to mess with it.  Just be aware and beware of what you're looking at. Caveat emptor.

COVID-19 July 10, 2020

Still going up.  What else is there to say?  How about wear your mask, save a life?

COVID-19 July 09, 2020

The 7-day average of daily deaths has taken a decisive upward direction.  It seemed almost inescapable that this would happen given the upward trend of new cases, new hospitalizations, and ICU admissions.  It's too early to attach a growth rate to the death trend just yet.  I expect it will have an exponential growth rate, but it's not possible yet to say what that is.  Maybe in about a week.  It certainly seems unlikely to start going back down.  The rate of new infections is continuing its exponential growth and is still at about a 14-day doubling rate.  I did once again have to adjust the y-axis to accommodate the ever-growing numbers.  Seems like that's going to be a regular exercise for the foreseeable future.

COVID-19 July 08, 2020

I was too busy to post yesterday and still too busy today to provide any narrative.  But, here's the data.

COVID-19 July 06, 2020

Way back when, when all this was starting, I cautioned about applying national statistics too broadly.  At the time, New York was surging and the bulk of national statistics were coming from the state.  Those numbers almost swamped out data and trends from other places.  Many states also had growing infections and deaths, but New York was a standout.  If you applied the average national numbers you would get the wrong impression of what was actually happening nationally and you'd get the wrong impression of what was actually going on in New York. 

There's a name for the phenomena that I've described above: Simpson's Paradox.  Wikipedia has a nice summary: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox .    The bottom line is, be very careful how you interpret statistics.  The statistical number crunching can be accurate, but the interpretation can be deceiving.  You really do need to understand the nature of the problem and some amount of detail about the origin of the numbers.  This goes for most everything: COVID trends, police and race, bias in proposal selection, and bias in college admissions. 

I've previously given some possible explanations for the rapid rise in infections and the lack of such a rise in deaths.  Simpon's paradox is one more possible explanation to add to that list.  Deaths may be decreasing or steady on average across the country, but that is not necessarily the case in Texas, Florida and Califonia the bulk of new cases are coming from.  To my eye, there is at least some indication that the death rate in the first two states has been inching up over the last couple of weeks.  It's not dramatic, and I haven't formally run the numbers, but the trend does appear to be there.  You can look at various other websites that track the data.  Texas deaths look to be going up since mid-June. Same in Florida.  California, however, has been pretty flat. 

And now, I bring you the official numbers from yesterday.  It was a typical down day with the oscillation effect amplified somewhat by the holiday and the weekend.  Let's see the numbers later this week.