Translate

Tuesday, April 13, 2021

The Mars Ingenuity Helicopter: An Aerial Assault on the Integrity of Science and the Mission Peer Review Process

The public and most of the Mars scientific community is absolutely giddy over the ingenuity helicopter that hitched a ride under the belly of the Mars Perseverance Rover.  It’s cool.  I get it.  You know what else it is?  It’s an affront to the established peer review process upon which successful missions are built. The NASA public relations machine has done an almost flawless job of distracting the public and the scientific community from the egregious violation of the rigorous peer review process that determines what flies into space.  Look! A mechanical flying Martian squirrel!  I’m not impressed.  I’m disgusted.

The Ingenuity helicopter did an end-run around the brutal proposal process that determined what was ultimately manifested on the Mars rover.  That process began with the solicitation of scientific investigations and accompanying instrumentation that could achieve one or more science objectives of the mission.  The teams who responded to that solicitation put in a massive amount of work, often with great personal sacrifice, and their institutions committed substantial resources and funds to support those proposal efforts. The proposals underwent a thorough and intense scientific and technical review process.  Most of those proposals were ultimately rejected by NASA, because they were some combination of too costly, too risky, too difficult to accommodate, or were not deemed as the best instrument to achieve one more of the predetermined science objectives.  Win or lose, the community respects and understands that the review process is necessary to preserve the integrity of the scientific process.  It’s not a perfect process, but it’s the best we have and, generally speaking, it works. In the small pile of proposals that survived the review gauntlet, a Mars helicopter was nowhere to be found.  Either it wasn’t proposed, or the peer review process rejected it. 

Yet, here we are. The entire rover mission, comprising hundreds of scientists and engineers, is being held hostage by an illegitimate public relations stunt.  After almost 60 Martian days on the surface, the rover and its team has been prevented from doing their intended work: Seeking, analyzing, and caching soil samples that should eventually be returned to Earth. The opportunity cost is staggering and growing.  Further, the opportunity cost goes beyond time and money.  The helicopter consumed resources and accommodation volume that could have been used by other worthy science investigations, some of which, undoubtedly, were far less costly, less risky and less difficult to accommodate.  That science will never happen.  Apparently, NASA’s claim of limited funds, risk aversion, and accommodation challenges were not truthful. (The reader may substitute the more appropriate synonym of “not truthful”). 

Whether the helicopter has science, engineering, or public relations value is irrelevant.  Let’s set aside that it’s difficult to conceive of a more hostile environment than Mars for a rotorcraft.  Its tenuous and extremely turbulent atmosphere is a flight operations nightmare. Let’s set aside that many of the difficulties of successful flight were left as an exercise to be solved later.  Let’s set aside that the helicopter may be able to carry out some amount of beneficial reconnaissance.  Let’s set aside the arguments of how the technology might feed forward to future exploration.  This is not a question of science or benefit.  The time for those questions was during the proposal evaluation process, and that time passed long ago.  What this is about is whether we want to strive for the best in space exploration or whether we want extrajudicial back room deals to determine what we send into space.  It’s about the integrity of the scientific method and the peer review process. There is no middle ground here.  To the public: You’re being duped by carnival barkers.  To my colleagues: Are you cheering, condemning, or remaining silent?


The comments expressed here are my own and do not necessarily reflect the views of my employer.

Thursday, September 17, 2020

COVID-19 September 17, 2020

It's been almost two weeks since I last posted.  The Labor Day holiday is primarily responsible for the silence.  First, the numbers coming in were rather skewed.  It was clear that testing, labs, and reporting were also respecting the holiday.  Second, I wanted to wait a week so that the holiday was in the rear view mirror and it became possible to better compare week over week numbers.  

 

Daily cases did indeed drop most of last week and have since recovered this week.  Not only have they recovered, but they are starting to rise above the numbers from two weeks ago.  I suspect that new cases are going to at least level off in the next week, and I would not be surprised if they start to rise again.  People are getting weary of quarantine.  Cell phone tracking indicates that people are going out and interacting more and more.  Couple that to the holiday and the return to school and the ingredients are in place for another rise. The death rate is also starting to tick up again and is now on par with the numbers prior to the holiday.  It would not be surprising to see that trend also continue.  

Next week will be key to seeing how holiday interactions and the return to school are impacting the numbers.  I'm not optimistic.

 

  






Friday, September 4, 2020

COVID-19 September 04, 2020

It's been about a week since I last posted.  In that period, the number of daily new cases has nearly leveled off at about 40,000 per day.  It would be interesting to see how much of that is due to the return to school.  There have certainly been a large number of reports of outbreaks at schools and universities.  It's curious, though, that some of these don't seem to be reflected in the individual state numbers.  For example, over a thousand students were supposedly diagnosed at the University of Alabama within the last couple of weeks.  But there is no significant change in that state's trends over the last several weeks.  In fact, Alabama posted a paltry 86 on September 2, which is the lowest since March 31.  Something is amiss.

The death rate continues downward, but the rate of decrease is slowing.  We are now down to about 850 deaths per day.  I expect the deaths to level off in the next week or so given the leveling of new cases.







 

Wednesday, August 26, 2020

COVID-19 August 26, 2020

We are now solidly past the peak of the second wave based on death rate, which has now been slowly decreasing (7-day average).  New cases have also been on the decline.  And now we wait to see if wave #3 emerges as students head back to school.

I read yesterday that hospitals will, once again, be sending their data directly to the CDC instead of HHS.  At this point I'm not sure it matters any more.  The data collection and distribution is so completely screwed up that it may not be possible to conduct meaningful analysis in real time.  It's going to take researchers months or years to dig through the records we do have and sort it all out.  I continue to get my data directly from the states, but just to illustrate how crazy those data are, I refer you to my state of Colorado.  On August 21, Colorado dumped 3,959 new cases into the database in one day.  Clearly, that's a backlog from many, many days (or weeks) prior.  What am I supposed to do with that?  Colorado is not unique.  

I'll be back again in a week or so, or sooner if something changes.  Stay safe out there!








Monday, August 17, 2020

COVID-19 August 17, 2020

 I'm struggling to get daily or near-daily reports out due to other obligations (a.k.a. my day job!).  Also, considering that there are generally no big changes from day-to-day, and that individual daily numbers shouldn't really be examined I'm going to post less frequently.  

As of today, cases and deaths have leveled off.  The daily death data still looks rather odd to me.  That doesn't mean it isn't real, but it's odd. All through July the death rate was increasing.  Then, at the end of July there was a small bump downward.  Following that the death rate has been near constant.  Why would the upward trend just terminate with a drop and then go constant?  Remember that this coincided with the hurricane in Florida and up the East Coast as well as the system changeover in Texas. 







Thursday, August 13, 2020

COVID-19 August 13, 2020

 Rather than posting a rather long narrative, I'm going to drop this article about testing and reporting issues in various states:  https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/12/accuracy-of-us-coronavirus-data-thrown-into-question-as-decline-in-testing-skews-drop-in-new-cases.html
 

Things are a real mess.  Actually, things are FUBAR.  While everyone is/was worried about the federal government fudging numbers after bypassing the CDC, the real story, I think, is at the state level.  The daily case numbers and total cases are becoming increasingly meaningless with time.  The death rate is still more robust, but that's a relative assessment.  How many different ways and our local, state and federal governments fail us?  





 

Wednesday, August 12, 2020

COVID-19 August 11, 2020

Wave number two is leveling off.  Sort of.  New daily cases have been dropping since about July 19.  Within the last week that trend has stopped and we've reached a plateau.  We'll have to wait and see if that's a temporary pause, whether we'll continue down, or whether we'll start on a wild ride up again.  Interestingly, California came in with big numbers yesterday: 12,500.  That's the highest number since July 22.  It's just one day, so it may not mean anything.  It's something to watch, however. I'll also be watching what happens as kids return to school.

The death rate dropped last week around the time the hurricane threatened Florida and when Texas switched to a new reporting system.  You can see the drop in numbers around day 212.  After that it plateaued.  This is an odd behavior, but it could be related to Texas and Florida numbers catching up.  We will have to see if this is a temporary pause or whether we're about to go up or continue down. I expect deaths to mirror the new cases with a lag of about three weeks.  To see deaths plateau around the same time as the new cases, with effectively no lag, is odd.