COVID-19 May 12, 2020

The trends continue as they have for at least the last two weeks.  New cases are decreasing very slowly on average.  The 7-day average last week was about 27,000 new cases/day.  Today it's close to 24,000.  That still means well over 100,000 new cases each week.

The death statistics are also following their established pattern. Yesterday was the low point in the weekly oscillation.  The question for later this week is what the high will be and whether that takes it substantially off the Gompertz curve.  Note that yesterday's low was about the same as the previous week whereas the Gompertz model demands that it continue downward.  Since the daily new cases have flattened it should not be surprising the daily deaths start to do the same, but with a time lag.  I suspect this is the week when the death statistics fall off the Gompertz train. If that happens, it means the projection for 100,000 dead that has held for weeks will be a minimum.