COVID-19 July 14, 2020

On June 26, I wrote the following:

"It seems that at least some of the criminally negligent state leaders have suddenly become aware of the trends.  Time to hit the pause button on re-opening, they say.  Nope.  Wrong answer.  Today's data is a reflection of the conditions two or more weeks ago.  Pausing simply means that the conditions that allowed for the explosion of new cases will remain in place.  So, we'll tread water for a few more weeks until the situation becomes catastrophic, and then we'll probably see some back-tracking to more restrictive policies."

And so, here we are.  California is the first to not just pause re-opening, but to reinstitute restrictions.  Meanwhile, the less enlightened states like Florida, Texas, Arizona, and Georgia continue marching into the fire.  All of this was predictable.  Inevitable.  The virus is a simple biological machine.  Replication follows simple biological laws and those biological laws are represented by exponential growth functions.  There is no way that reopening is going to work unless it comes with other measures that include massive testing, tracing, and rapid localized quarantine. 

"Today's data is a reflection of the conditions two or more weeks ago".  I wonder how many dead will be piled up in the hospital hallways in a couple weeks in those states that continue with their ill-advised policies.  Those dead are baked into the cake.  Nothing we can do about it.   How long before those states will finally reverse course? 

The numbers from yesterday should be close to the low spot for the week.  I think the numbers from the rest of this week are likely to be simultaneously shocking but also not surprising.  Totally predictable.  Completely criminal.

COVID-19 July 13, 2020

The numbers are in for the day and I'm going to post tonight instead of tomorrow morning.  Today and tomorrow should be down days in the weekly cycle, but that didn't stop some hefty numbers from coming in.  Still, we are down in both new cases and deaths for today, as expected. 

If we continue on the current trend we will see 100,000 new cases per day in about 10 days from now.  Per day. 100,000.  Wow.  Deaths are continuing to increase, on average, but the trend is too recent to be able to make any meaningful predictions other than "up".  The 7-day average of daily deaths is currently just under 700.  That's over three, full, 737-800s augering into the ground and killing everyone aboard every day.  I suspect things would be different if the news was showing three planes crashing to the ground every day for days on end.  Total deaths are now at or above 125,000 depending on what data you follow.   There were about 48,000 total combat deaths during the Vietnam war.  So, we're at about three Vietnam's now in less than 6 months.  Grim.

COVID-19 July 12, 2020

At some point, you just start to run out of things to say.  Things are going up.  But, I've already said that multiple times.  At least Disney World reopened in Florida.  Seems like a good idea.  And, that's about all you need to know about things in the US.

COVID-19 July 11, 2020

I am continuing to overlay a shifted version of the current wave of new infections on top of the original. The rate of increase has been about the same, but unlike the first wave, the current wave is continuing to go up.  The best fit exponential growth curve for the current wave may be showing a very, very slight flattening.  The peak growth rate I saw was about 14.5 days and it is now about 17 days.  That could just be natural variation.

It is also important to note that in the first wave we had very poor testing capabilities and many of the states were lumping presumptive cases together with the confirmed.  Testing capabilities have now improved, although still not to where they need be, and so we should expect to be identifying more cases.  At the same time, many of the states are now counting only confirmed cases.  So, in short, the data from the first wave has a different basis behind it than the current wave.  IIf information was readily available it should be possible to normalize these data to a common standard, but the information isn't readily available and I don't have the time to mess with it.  Just be aware and beware of what you're looking at. Caveat emptor.

COVID-19 July 10, 2020

Still going up.  What else is there to say?  How about wear your mask, save a life?

COVID-19 July 09, 2020

The 7-day average of daily deaths has taken a decisive upward direction.  It seemed almost inescapable that this would happen given the upward trend of new cases, new hospitalizations, and ICU admissions.  It's too early to attach a growth rate to the death trend just yet.  I expect it will have an exponential growth rate, but it's not possible yet to say what that is.  Maybe in about a week.  It certainly seems unlikely to start going back down.  The rate of new infections is continuing its exponential growth and is still at about a 14-day doubling rate.  I did once again have to adjust the y-axis to accommodate the ever-growing numbers.  Seems like that's going to be a regular exercise for the foreseeable future.

COVID-19 July 08, 2020

I was too busy to post yesterday and still too busy today to provide any narrative.  But, here's the data.